Endeksa, which offers real estate value calculation using big data analysis and artificial intelligence technology and thus enables users to sell real estate with confidence, examined the April 2024 Housing Sales Statistics announced by TURKSTAT with its own data analysis valuations. Görkem Öğüt, Co-Founder and General Manager of Endeksa, who evaluated the figures in the platform's big data network in the light of average house prices across Turkey, pointed out that prices are still on the rise in nominal terms these days, when we see the lowest number of house sales in the last 2 years. Öğüt continued his words as follows:
“When we look at Endeksa valuations, prices continue to increase nominally compared to last year and the year before, but we can say that we are at the lowest level of price increase in real terms. Turkey-wide average real estate sales price figures show that the nominal increase in the housing market for sale continues. Accordingly, house prices for sale have increased by 54% in one year as of April 2024 when annual value changes are analyzed. According to Endeksa data, the average house price in Turkey has reached 3 million 358 thousand 940 TL, while this figure has exceeded 7.5 million TL in Muğla and 4.5 million TL in Istanbul. However, when house prices are adjusted for the current inflation in the country, the annual change in sale prices decreased by 9%.
“There may be a numerical decline in house prices within 2 years”
Görkem Öğüt emphasized that recent purchases in the housing market have been made with liquidity, and underlined that there have been tough negotiations especially in high segment houses: “We are in a period when cash is strong in real estate, and since it is a cash-driven market, the bargaining margins have also increased a lot. This bargaining pressure is pushing prices down, especially in the high segment.” Öğüt said that it may take longer than expected for the real decline in the rate of housing growth to be reflected in nominal values: “If it continues in this way, it is possible that the gap that opened in 2022 will close within 2 years. We will be able to talk about falling figures not only in real terms but also in nominal terms. However, it should not be forgotten here that real estate ranks at the forefront as the best and safest investment tool independent of time in our country as in the world.”
Stating that there are a considerable amount of regions that remain below inflation in terms of price increase, Öğüt said, “Especially when we look at Istanbul, for example, we feel this price decline more in regions such as Esenyurt, where houses are sold faster. The decline has reached 35-40% in this region. Likewise, in regions such as Antalya and other coastal cities, which rose very rapidly in August 2022, the price increase slowed down and started to remain below real.”
According to Endeksa data, a similar situation is observed for rental housing as for sale housing. Rental house prices increased by 55% in April 2024 compared to the previous year, while the annual increase decreased by 8% when adjusted for inflation.
The Decline in Mortgaged Sales has a Share in the Number of Sales
According to Turkstat data, house sales in Turkey decreased by 28% in April compared to the previous month and by 12% compared to the same month of the previous year to 75,569. Öğüt added the following on the subject:
“Looking at the last two years in terms of sales units, the biggest factor behind this decline is the decline in mortgaged sales. In Turkey, mortgaged house sales decreased by 45% in April compared to the previous month and by 68% compared to the same month of the previous year to 7 thousand 71. The share of mortgaged sales in total house sales was realized as 9%. In the last 2 years, this rate was around 30-32%.”
Istanbul Still at the Top
In April, Istanbul had the highest share in house sales with 12 thousand 406 house sales and 16%, followed by Ankara with 8% share and Antalya with 6% share. According to Endeksa data, as of the end of April, the annual value increase in house sales prices in Istanbul is 53%, the average house square meter sales price is 39 thousand 388 TL, the average house price is 4.6 million TL.
House prices in Ankara have increased by 63% in the last year, the average selling price per square meter is 21 thousand 231 TL and the average house price is 2.76 million TL.
In Antalya, the annual value increase is 44%, the average selling price per square meter is 34 thousand 988 TL, the average house price is 4.1 million TL.
According to Endeksa data, when the top 30 provinces with the highest number of house sales in April are evaluated, the provinces with the highest annual value increase are Erzurum, Ordu and Elazığ, respectively. In Erzurum, house prices increased by 85% in the last year, the average house square meter selling price was 12 thousand 623 TL, the average house selling price was 1.9 million TL, in Ordu, house sales prices increased by 73%, the average house square meter selling price was 22 thousand 138 TL, the average house price was 2.9 million TL and in Elazığ, house sales prices increased by 72%, the average house square meter selling price was 13 thousand 182 TL, the average house price was 2.2 million TL.